The next two weeks will determine how we ended the year in the financial markets and investors are standing, waiting to respond. It is time to contracting, with month – or if, years in the UK – the negotiations to come to a head as the clock ticks down. The US election is in the final stretch, and every week that passes brings us one step over a Covid vaccine. A huge amount of event risk will ensure that it is a fascinating end of a year otherwise horrible.
In addition to the election of November 3 in the US the focus will fall on the reading surface of GDP, COVID-19 spread, and great technology revenue. The US economy is expected to post a record-breaking rebound in economic growth in the third quarter. Size Q3 growth is expected to rise 32.0%, erasing removes 31.4% contraction seen in the previous quarter. This is the last major data release before the election and may affect some voters in the direction of the economy.
The virus spread intensify in the US and record high cases seem very likely. The third wave of the virus continues to paralyze the Midwest, but hospitalization is not rising sharply as many young people become more open. For now, the US does not see anything close to the lockdown and restrictive measures in Europe, but that could change if another wave happens.
The third week of earnings season heats up with some mega-cap technology results from Facebook (NASDAQ: FB), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN). Close attention will also fall on the industry and profit or transportation of General Electric (NYSE: GE), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Airbus (PA: AIR), Boeing (NYSE: BA), UPS (NYSE: UPS), Caterpillar ( NYSE: CAT) and Honeywell (NYSE: HON).
ECB meeting next week to lay the groundwork for more easing in December for the euro area economy flirting with a double-dip recession. COVID wreak havoc once again, which means more restrictions on the block. This is mainly taking its toll on the services sector, with manufacturing performing relatively well, helped by a rebound in the Chinese economy. Policy makers have kept the lid on the euro after a blunder Christine Lagarde in the last press conference, and reduce manual next week will go some way to reduce the pressure of deflation for now.
England continued to see increasing cases of forced hospitalization COVID and tighter restrictions around the country. This situation will get much worse before it gets better, that will be a drag on the economy. Expect more stimulus from the Bank of England this year. Brexit remains a major downside risk for the economy, but negotiations took a significant step forward this week.
China plenum of the Communist Party runs from Monday to Thursday to set new plans for 5 years. potentially important political statements coming Friday. China’s industrial profits Tuesday should keep the tone of the recent data growth, supporting shares and CNY China.
Ant Financial IPO opens Tuesday-Thursday with payment 2. potentially strong tailwind November for high-tech stocks in China next week. Official China PMIs published Saturday, 31 October followed by Caixin PMI 2. Monday the main risk is disappointing figures that could lead to a significant reduction actions Monday, November 2.