The last US presidential debate was less chaotic than the first but offered little new information to inform the result on the markets. Meanwhile, the relevant discussions on the post-election economic outlook was limited, especially President Trump.
Yet comments from Biden a “$ 2 TRN clean energy plan” should support the story that more fiscal stimulus would materialize under a Democratic president and Congress scan. Biden also stressed that transition away from the oil industry, which has negative consequences for the energy sector in the United States amid broader pro-reflation trades (for example, the curve steepening TEU, prices of industrial metals higher) result in a “wave blue”.
US equities were stronger Thursday, recovering 0.5% after small losses on Wednesday. With no breakthrough on stimulus negotiations overnight, stocks continued to trend higher bid. The street also moves here and there with unwinding / rotation in US stocks Thursday, continuing the trend observed in the last two days. A more significant effect on the bond market, with US 10-year yields, lifting a 4bps more overnight to 0.86% and 30Y results up to 1.68%, the highest since early Mars than the long-term incentives continue to be packed in
Trading point of view
There have been some notable gains reactions to the third quarter of stocks of US Industrial again today. Again, mixed / poor results increasingly punished. In fact, the bar is relatively high for this season EPS as the uncertainty engendered by the election with endless encouragement holders leave little margin for error.
Markets could continue to operate cautiously in line with the current stimulus issue before the election. Pelosi and Mnuchin continue discussion today. However, Sen. Mitch McConnell made no promises about whether the Senate will approve the compromise agreement, even if they are voted.
increasing advantage of voting Joe Biden has coincided with a marked positive difference in the Biden win baskets of securities. But investors have incredibly become more selective portfolio positioning around the election day is approaching and Mull the implications of a possible wave blue and, most importantly, what it will mean a change pro-cyclical markets values.
Still, investors have difficulty as to whether a Biden presidency is anti-growth or no. Some days, give the benefit of the doubt that the stimulus is best for all; However, some growth stocks struggling in the face of the rates at higher long end amid fears of taxation and regulation corporate, this may paint an accurate picture of what a possible ‘hard rotation’ actions post-election day growth looks
Suppose you need a good cover for a rebound before or after the elections stimulus. In that case, follow the most basic strategies systematically offer fundamental perceptible cyclical downturns of the market supports US actions.
The two sides remain at the table of negotiations stimulus that neither the benefits of pulling away. But with the Senate Republican does not compromise on the most difficult issues of financial assistance to States and protections of responsibility and Pelosi Trump unlikely to deliver a victory this late in the game. So, unless a surprise happens before sunset Friday sun Last Chance Saloon, neither party can be negotiating in good faith.
However, the price action asset classes this week gives a clearer picture of what a Democratic sweep scenario could mean that joint action on the tax perspective on higher societies curve bear steepening rate on the budget deficit increased spending also hurting growth stocks, USD down on impulse reflation, and less geopolitical risk on the response of the more moderate foreign policy Biden.